Daily Papers

The San Andreas Fault system, known for its frequent seismic activity, provides an extensive dataset for earthquake studies. The region's well-instrumented seismic networks have been crucial in advancing research on earthquake statistics, physics, and subsurface Earth structures. In recent years, earthquake data from California has become increasingly valuable for deep learning applications, such as Generalized Phase Detection (GPD) for phase detection and polarity determination, and PhaseNet for phase arrival-time picking. The continuous accumulation of data, particularly those manually labeled by human analysts, serves as an essential resource for advancing both regional and global deep learning models. To support the continued development of machine learning and data mining studies, we have compiled a unified California Earthquake Event Dataset (CEED) that integrates seismic records from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) and the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC). The dataset includes both automatically and manually determined parameters such as earthquake origin time, source location, P/S phase arrivals, first-motion polarities, and ground motion intensity measurements. The dataset is organized in an event-based format organized by year spanning from 2000 to 2024, facilitating cross-referencing with event catalogs and enabling continuous updates in future years. This comprehensive open-access dataset is designed to support diverse applications including developing deep learning models, creating enhanced catalog products, and research into earthquake processes, fault zone structures, and seismic risks.

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is an emerging technology for earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. The recorded seismic signals by DAS have several distinct characteristics, such as unknown coupling effects, strong anthropogenic noise, and ultra-dense spatial sampling. These aspects differ from conventional seismic data recorded by seismic networks, making it challenging to utilize DAS at present for seismic monitoring. New data analysis algorithms are needed to extract useful information from DAS data. Previous studies on conventional seismic data demonstrated that deep learning models could achieve performance close to human analysts in picking seismic phases. However, phase picking on DAS data is still a difficult problem due to the lack of manual labels. Further, the differences in mathematical structure between these two data formats, i.e., ultra-dense DAS arrays and sparse seismic networks, make model fine-tuning or transfer learning difficult to implement on DAS data. In this work, we design a new approach using semi-supervised learning to solve the phase-picking task on DAS arrays. We use a pre-trained PhaseNet model as a teacher network to generate noisy labels of P and S arrivals on DAS data and apply the Gaussian mixture model phase association (GaMMA) method to refine these noisy labels to build training datasets. We develop a new deep learning model, PhaseNet-DAS, to process the 2D spatial-temporal data of DAS arrays and train the model on DAS data. The new deep learning model achieves high picking accuracy and good earthquake detection performance. We then apply the model to process continuous data and build earthquake catalogs directly from DAS recording. Our approach using semi-supervised learning provides a way to build effective deep learning models for DAS, which have the potential to improve earthquake monitoring using large-scale fiber networks.

As the number of seismic sensors grows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for analysts to pick seismic phases manually and comprehensively, yet such efforts are fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Despite years of improvements in automatic phase picking, it is difficult to match the performance of experienced analysts. A more subtle issue is that different seismic analysts may pick phases differently, which can introduce bias into earthquake locations. We present a deep-neural-network-based arrival-time picking method called "PhaseNet" that picks the arrival times of both P and S waves. Deep neural networks have recently made rapid progress in feature learning, and with sufficient training, have achieved super-human performance in many applications. PhaseNet uses three-component seismic waveforms as input and generates probability distributions of P arrivals, S arrivals, and noise as output. We engineer PhaseNet such that peaks in probability provide accurate arrival times for both P and S waves, and have the potential to increase the number of S-wave observations dramatically over what is currently available. This will enable both improved locations and improved shear wave velocity models. PhaseNet is trained on the prodigious available data set provided by analyst-labeled P and S arrival times from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center. The dataset we use contains more than seven million waveform samples extracted from over thirty years of earthquake recordings. We demonstrate that PhaseNet achieves much higher picking accuracy and recall rate than existing methods.

Serving disaggregated large language models (LLMs) over tens of thousands of xPU devices (GPUs or NPUs) with reliable performance faces multiple challenges. 1) Ignoring the diversity (various prefixes and tidal requests), treating all the prompts in a mixed pool is inadequate. To facilitate the similarity per scenario and minimize the inner mismatch on P/D (prefill and decoding) processing, fine-grained organization is required, dynamically adjusting P/D ratios for better performance. 2) Due to inaccurate estimation on workload (queue status or maintained connections), the global scheduler easily incurs unnecessary timeouts in prefill. 3) Block-fixed device-to-device (D2D) KVCache transfer over cluster-level RDMA (remote direct memory access) fails to achieve desired D2D utilization as expected. To overcome previous problems, this paper proposes an end-to-end system P/D-Serve, complying with the paradigm of MLOps (machine learning operations), which models end-to-end (E2E) P/D performance and enables: 1) fine-grained P/D organization, mapping the service with RoCE (RDMA over converged ethernet) as needed, to facilitate similar processing and dynamic adjustments on P/D ratios; 2) on-demand forwarding upon rejections for idle prefill, decoupling the scheduler from regular inaccurate reports and local queues, to avoid timeouts in prefill; and 3) efficient KVCache transfer via optimized D2D access. P/D-Serve is implemented upon Ascend and MindSpore, has been deployed over tens of thousands of NPUs for more than eight months in commercial use, and further achieves 60\%, 42\% and 46\% improvements on E2E throughput, time-to-first-token (TTFT) SLO (service level objective) and D2D transfer time. As the E2E system with optimizations, P/D-Serve achieves 6.7x increase on throughput, compared with aggregated LLMs.

The analytical formulae for the phase space factors and the three-momenta of three- and four-body final states are derived for all sets of independent kinematic variables containing invariant mass variables. These formulae will help experimental physicist to perform the data analysis. As an example, we show how to use these formulae to distinguish the different mechanisms of e+pto e+J/ψ+ p process for searching the signals of P_c states at the energy region of Electron-Ion collider at China (EicC).

Synchrophasor technology is an emerging and developing technology for monitoring and control of wide area measurement systems (WAMS). In an elementary WAMS, two identical phasors measured at two different locations have difference in the phase angles measured since their reference waveforms are not synchronized with each other. Phasor measurement units (PMUs) measure input phasors with respect to a common reference wave based on the atomic clock pulses received from global positioning system (GPS) satellites, eliminating variation in the measured phase angles due to distant locations of the measurement nodes. This has found tremendous applications in quick fault detection, fault location analysis, accurate current, voltage, frequency and phase angle measurements in WAMS. Commercially available PMU models are often proven to be expensive for research and development as well as for grid integration projects. This research article proposes an economic PMU model optimized for accurate steadystate performance based on recursive discrete Fourier transform (DFT) and provides results and detailed analysis of the proposed PMU model as per the steady state compliance specifications of IEEE standard C37.118.1. Results accurate up to 13 digits after decimal point are obtained through the developed PMU model for both nominal and off-nominal frequency inputs in steady state.

OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by Polymarket's own order book, and simulated trading nets -0.116 normalized payoff units per attempted trade under stated fee and slippage assumptions. We release the synchronized corpus and infrastructure that attempt produced and, to our knowledge, the first public millisecond-level Polymarket BTC / Binance BTC-USDT paired corpus with explicit pairing metadata. The frozen archive (tag v0.5.2) contains 727,098,247 deduplicated rows across 202 archival snapshots, with event data on 54 observed Polymarket days (57 Binance days) between 2026-02-12 and 2026-05-15, including 2,936,031 explicit lead-lag pairs, alongside a reproducible Rust pipeline for collection, millisecond pairing, Parquet export, and walk-forward calibration. Initial analyses establish Polymarket stylized facts (one-tick top-of-book spreads) and characterize cross-venue timing: an apparent 16 ms median lag on venue source clocks, with relative clock drift bounded to at most 6 ms over the archive but a remaining single-vantage constant-offset ambiguity of approximately plus or minus 99 ms. A synchronization-free event study, measured only on the collector clock, independently shows that Polymarket quotes respond to large Binance moves after a median 347 ms. We position this work as a data-and-methods release whose central empirical result is a null out-of-sample forecasting result.

A fully differential calculation in perturbative quantum chromodynamics is presented for the production of massive photon pairs at hadron colliders. All next-to-leading order perturbative contributions from quark-antiquark, gluon-(anti)quark, and gluon-gluon subprocesses are included, as well as all-orders resummation of initial-state gluon radiation valid at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. The region of phase space is specified in which the calculation is most reliable. Good agreement is demonstrated with data from the Fermilab Tevatron, and predictions are made for more detailed tests with CDF and DO data. Predictions are shown for distributions of diphoton pairs produced at the energy of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Distributions of the diphoton pairs from the decay of a Higgs boson are contrasted with those produced from QCD processes at the LHC, showing that enhanced sensitivity to the signal can be obtained with judicious selection of events.

It is anticipated that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will collect data from oxygen-oxygen (O+O) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV to explore the effects observed in high multiplicity proton-proton (p+p) and proton-lead (p+pb) collisions that closely related to lead-lead (Pb+Pb) collisions. These effects include azimuthal asymmetries in particle production, as well as variations in the abundances and momentum distributions across different hadron species, which are indicative of collective particle production mechanisms induced by the interactions in the presence of a QGP. The upcoming data on O+O collisions at the LHC are expected to constrain the model parameters and refine our understanding of theoretical models. In this work, the predicted transverse momentum (p_T) spectra, rapidity density distributions (dN/dy), particle yield ratios, and p_T-differential ratios of (multi)strange hadrons produced in O+O collisions at s_{mathrm{NN}} = 7 TeV using AMPT and EPOS4 models are presented. AMPT focuses on preformed hadronic interactions, while EPOS4 incorporates a QGP phase. Stronger radial flow in EPOS4 as compared to AMPT is also observed. AMPT incorporates some flow effects, but the implementation of full hydrodynamic flow in EPOS4 appears to be significantly more effective in reproducing the existing experimental data. Both models predict the final state multiplicity overlap with p+p, p+pb, and Pb+Pb collisions.

Blazars, a class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) powered by supermassive black holes, are known for their remarkable variability across multiple timescales and wavelengths. With advancements in both ground- and space-based telescopes, our understanding of AGN central engines has significantly improved. However, the mechanisms driving this variability remain elusive, and continue to fascinate both theorists and observers alike. The primary objective of this study is to constrain the X-ray variability properties of the TeV blazar PKS 2155-304. We conduct a comprehensive X-ray spectral and timing analysis, focusing on both long-term and intra-day variability. This analysis uses data from 22 epochs of XMM-Newton EPIC-pn observations, collected over 15 years (2000-2014). To investigate the variability of the source, we applied both timing and spectral analyses. For the timing analysis, we estimated fractional variability, variability amplitude, minimum variability timescales, flux distribution, and power spectral density (PSD). In the spectral analysis, we fitted the X-ray spectra using power-law, log-parabola, and broken power-law (BPL) models to determine the best-fitting parameters. Additionally, we studied the hardness ratio (HR). We observed moderate intra-day variability in most of the light curves. Seven out of the twenty-two observations showed a clear bimodal flux distribution, indicating the presence of two distinct flux states. Our analysis revealed a variable power-law PSD slope. Most HR plots did not show significant variation with flux, except for one observation (OBSID 0124930501), where HR increased with flux (Count/s). The fitted X-ray spectra favored the BPL model for the majority of observations. The findings of this work shed light on the intraday variability of blazars, providing insights into the non-thermal jet processes that drive the observed flux variations.

We apply a Gaussian process method to the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 to discover the variable patterns and then to investigate the physical origins of the giant flares. The kernels of stochastically driven damped simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), the damped random-walk (DRW), and Matrm ern-3/2 are respectively used to describe the adaptive-binning gamma-ray light curves of the two flares. Our findings show that both the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 clearly prefer the SHO kernel in the over-damped mode and the Matrm ern-3/2 kernel over the DRW kernel. The resulted SHO and Matrm ern-3/2 power spectral densities (PSDs) are the same for each object, with the index changing from -4 at high frequencies to 0 at low frequencies. The patterns of the two flares are both approaching the critical damping mode with the quality factor Q approx 0.4 (i.e., the damping ratio eta approx 1.25), but with slightly different damping timescales. The characteristic timescale (corresponding to the broken frequency in the PSD) for 3C 454.3 is 2-3 days and 3-5 days for 3C 279. The variable patterns found here suggest that once the system responds to the energy injection disturbance, the release of the energy in the system is finished abruptly. The obtained timescale provides a constraint on the size of energy dissipation region for each source.

The collision system and multiplicity dependence of chemical freeze-out temperature (T_{rm ch}) and strangeness saturation factor (γ_{s}) are obtained by studying the particle ratios at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies. Here, we consider the new results in pp at 13 TeV, p+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 5.02 TeV, Xe+Xe at s_{rm NN} = 5.44 TeV and Pb+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 5.02 TeV along with the earlier results in pp at s = 7 TeV and Pb+Pb at s_{rm NN} = 2.76 TeV. A statistical thermal model is used to extract the chemical freeze-out parameters in different multiplicity classes. To understand the particle production from small to large collision systems two ensembles namely, canonical and grand canonical have been considered in this study. A clear observation of multiplicity dependence of T_{rm ch} and γ_{s} is observed. The values obtained in high-multiplicity pp collisions are found to be similar to the peripheral Pb+Pb collisions. A final state midrapidity charged particle multiplicity density of around 20-30 appears to be a threshold below which, the chemical freeze-out temperature is lower than the kinetic freeze-out temperature.

The total charm-quark production cross section per unit of rapidity dσ({rm cc})/dy, and the fragmentation fractions of charm quarks to different charm-hadron species f(crm h_{c}), are measured for the first time in p-Pb collisions at s_mathrm{NN} = 5.02 TeV at midrapidity (-0.96<y<0.04 in the centre-of-mass frame) using data collected by ALICE at the CERN LHC. The results are obtained based on all the available measurements of prompt production of ground-state charm-hadron species: D^{0}, D^{+}, D_s^{+}, and J/ψ mesons, and Λ_c^{+} and Ξ_{rm c}^{0} baryons. The resulting cross section is dσ({rm cc})/dy =219.6 pm 6.3;(stat.) {;}_{-11.8}^{+10.5};(syst.) {;}_{-2.9}^{+8.3};(extr.)pm 5.4;(BR)pm 4.6;(lumi.) pm 19.5;(rapidity shape)+15.0;(Ω_{rm c}^{0}) mb, which is consistent with a binary scaling of pQCD calculations from pp collisions. The measured fragmentation fractions are compatible with those measured in pp collisions at s = 5.02 and 13 TeV, showing an increase in the relative production rates of charm baryons with respect to charm mesons in pp and p-Pb collisions compared with e^{+e^{-}} and e^{-p} collisions. The p_T-integrated nuclear modification factor of charm quarks, R_pPb({rm cc})= 0.91 pm 0.04;{rm (stat.)}{}^{+0.08}_{-0.09};{rm (syst.)}{}^{+0.05}_{-0.03};{rm (extr.)}{}pm 0.03;{rm (lumi.)}, is found to be consistent with unity and with theoretical predictions including nuclear modifications of the parton distribution functions.

A sizeable fraction of gamma-ray burst (GRB) light curves (LCs) features a sequence of peaks, which holds information on the unknown way energy is dissipated into gamma-rays over time. Traditional searches for periodic signals in GRB LCs turned out to be inconclusive, partly because they are challenging as a consequence of the short-lived, coloured-noise, and non-stationary nature of the LCs themselves. Yet, recent claims have revived the issue. We searched for periodic components in GRB LCs through a new approach to GRBs, that avoids most of the issues faced by traditional techniques. We identified peaks through a well tested algorithm and selected GRBs with at least 10 peaks out of 5 GRB catalogues (Swift/BAT, CGRO/BATSE, Fermi/GBM, Insight-HXMT, BeppoSAX/GRBM). Each GRB was simply treated as a discrete point process, whose realisation coincides with the sequence of peak times. We searched for possible periodic recurrences based on the multinomial distribution, after accounting for the clustering of peaks due to the non-stationarity of the GRB signals. The best candidate has a p-value of 3e-4 that there is no periodic recurrence. However, accounting for the multiple trials of 555 searched GRBs, its statistical significance is demoted to 17%. The overall distribution of the p-values obtained for all GRBs is compatible with a uniform distribution in [0,1]. We found no robust evidence for multi-peaked GRBs with periodic recurrences. We can exclude that a sizeable fraction (>~ 0.75) of peaks of each GRB with at least 10 peaks are periodic. While our result does not necessarily clash with claimed periodicities based on Fourier techniques, it constrains the putative recurrent behaviour, which would not manifest itself through the sequence of peaks, but, evidently, in a more elusive way.

The final state interactions (FSI) model in which soft rescattering of low mass intermediate states dominates is suggested. It explains why the strong interaction phases are large in the B_dtopipi channel and are considerably smaller in the B_dtorhorho one. Direct CP asymmetries of B_dtopipi decays which are determined by FSI phases are considered as well.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

A dynamical model based on a phenomenological charm quark-nucleon(c-N) potential v_{cN} and the Pomeron-exchange mechanism is constructed to investigate the J/Psi photo-production on the nucleon from threshold to invariant mass W=300 GeV. The J/Psi-N potential,V_{J/Psi N}(r),is constructed by folding v_{cN} into the wavefunction Phi_{J/Psi}(cc) of J/Psi within a Constituent Quark Model(CQM) of Ref.[43]. A photo-production amplitude is also generated by v_{cN} by a cc-loop integration over the gammarightarrow cc vertex function and Phi_{J/Psi}(cc). No commonly used Vector Meson Dominance assumption is used to define this photo-production amplitude which is needed to describe the data near the threshold. The potential v_{cN}(r) is parameterized in a form such that the predicted V_{J/Psi N}(r) at large distances has the same Yukawa potential form extracted from a Lattice QCD(LQCD) calculation of Ref.[18]. The parameters of v_{cN} are determined by fitting the total cross section data of JLab by performing calculations that include J/Psi-N final state interactions(FSI). The resulting differential cross sections are found in good agreements with the data. It is shown that the FSI effects dominate the cross section in the very near threshold region, allowing for sensitive testing of the predicted J/Psi-N scattering amplitudes. By imposing the constraints of J/Psi-N potential extracted from the LQCD calculation, we have obtained three J/Psi-N potentials which fit the JLab data equally well. The resulting J/Psi-N scattering lengths are in the range of a=(-0.05 fm sim -0.25 fm). With the determined v_{cN}(r) and the wavefunctions generated from the same CQM, the constructed model is used to predict the cross sections of photo-production of eta_c(1S) and Psi(2S) mesons for future experimental tests.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^circ, and magnitudes 3 leq M_w leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves median normalized cross correlation above 0.93. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.

For decades, classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes (NPPs), which promise greater flexibility and improvements over such classical models. However, the currently-used benchmark for NPPs does not represent an up-to-date challenge in the seismological community, since it contains data leakage and omits the largest earthquake sequence from the region. Additionally, initial earthquake forecasting benchmarks fail to compare NPPs with state-of-the-art forecasting models commonly used in seismology. To address these gaps, we introduce EarthquakeNPP: a benchmarking platform that curates and standardizes existing public resources: globally available earthquake catalogs, the ETAS model, and evaluation protocols from the seismology community. The datasets cover a range of small to large target regions within California, dating from 1971 to 2021, and include different methodologies for dataset generation. Benchmarking experiments, using both log-likelihood and generative evaluation metrics widely recognised in seismology, show that none of the five NPPs tested outperform ETAS. These findings suggest that current NPP implementations are not yet suitable for practical earthquake forecasting. Nonetheless, EarthquakeNPP provides a platform to foster future collaboration between the seismology and machine learning communities.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Based on a time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau system of equations and finite element modeling, we present novel results related with the physics of phase-slippage in superconducting wires surrounded by a non-superconductive environment. These results are obtained within our previously reported approach related to superconducting rings and superconductive gravitational wave detector transducers. It is shown that the phase-slip centers (PSCs) can be effective in originating not only positive but also negative thermal fluxes. With an appropriate design utilizing thermal diodes, PSCs can serve as cryocooling engines. Operating at Tsim 1 K cryostat cold-finger, they can achieve sub-Kelvin temperatures without using ^3He.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

We describe an analysis comparing the pp elastic cross section as measured by the D0 Collaboration at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV to that in pp collisions as measured by the TOTEM Collaboration at 2.76, 7, 8, and 13 TeV using a model-independent approach. The TOTEM cross sections extrapolated to a center-of-mass energy of s = 1.96 TeV are compared with the D0 measurement in the region of the diffractive minimum and the second maximum of the pp cross section. The two data sets disagree at the 3.4σ level and thus provide evidence for the t-channel exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound, also known as the odderon. We combine these results with a TOTEM analysis of the same C-odd exchange based on the total cross section and the ratio of the real to imaginary parts of the forward elastic scattering amplitude in pp scattering. The combined significance of these results is larger than 5σ and is interpreted as the first observation of the exchange of a colorless, C-odd gluonic compound.

Quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs) of Sun and stars are challenging for stellar flare models. The white light stellar QPPs in the periodicity region of tens of second are unexplored yet. On the basis of observations with the 6-m telescope BTA in U-band of flaring dM-stars EV Lac, Wolf 359, Wolf 424, V577 Mon and UV Ceti we found 13 new QPPs. This composes 30% occurrence among 44 worked flares. These QPPs were found to have periods ranging from 6 to 107 seconds and were detected using both Fourier transform and empirical mode decomposition methods. The observed QPPs were categorized by the evolution of their oscillation envelope and fractional flux amplitudes. There are shown the statistically significant correlations of the QPP period with the duration, the equivalent duration and the amplitude of a flare, and the correlation between the QPP amplitude and flare amplitude.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

With the aim of testing massive gravity in the context of black hole physics, we investigate the gravitational radiation emitted by a massive particle plunging into a Schwarzschild black hole from slightly below the innermost stable circular orbit. To do so, we first construct the quasinormal and quasibound resonance spectra of the spin-2 massive field for odd and even parity. Then, we compute the waveforms produced by the plunging particle and study their spectral content. This allows us to highlight and interpret important phenomena in the plunge regime, including (i) the excitation of quasibound states, with particular emphasis on the amplification and slow decay of the post-ringdown phase of the even-parity dipolar mode due to harmonic resonance; (ii) during the adiabatic phase, the waveform emitted by the plunging particle is very well described by the waveform emitted by the particle living on the innermost stable circular orbit, and (iii) the regularized waveforms and their unregularized counterparts constructed from the quasinormal mode spectrum are in excellent agreement. Finally, we construct, for arbitrary directions of observation and, in particular, outside the orbital plane of the plunging particle, the regularized multipolar waveforms, i.e., the waveforms constructed by summing over partial waveforms.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

Sonification -- the mapping of data to non-speech audio -- offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos, as a test case for culturally-situated sonification evaluated through complex systems diagnostics. Using parameter-mapping sonification of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index (1870--2024), we encode ENSO variability into two traditional Javanese gamelan pentatonic systems (pelog and slendro) across four composition strategies, then analyze the resulting audio as trajectories in a two-dimensional acoustic phase space. Recurrence-based diagnostics, convex hull geometry, and coupling analysis reveal that the sonification pipeline preserves key dynamical signatures: alternating modes produce the highest trajectory recurrence rates, echoing ENSO's quasi-periodicity; layered polyphonic modes explore the broadest phase space regions; and the two scale families induce qualitatively distinct coupling regimes between spectral brightness and energy -- predominantly anti-phase in pelog but near-independent in slendro. Phase space trajectory analysis provides a rigorous geometric framework for comparing sonification designs within a complex systems context. Perceptual validation remains necessary; we contribute the dynamical systems methodology for evaluating such mappings.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

We develop a linear perturbative formalism to compute the response of an inhomogeneous stellar disk embedded in a non-responsive dark matter halo to perturbations like bars, spiral arms and satellite galaxy encounters. Without self-gravity to reinforce it, the response of a Fourier mode phase mixes away due to an intrinsic spread in the vertical (Omega_z), radial (Omega_r) and azimuthal (Omega_phi) frequencies, giving rise to local phase-space spirals. Collisional diffusion due to scattering of stars by structures like giant molecular clouds causes super-exponential damping of the phase-spiral amplitude. The z-v_z phase-spiral is 1-armed (2-armed) for vertically anti-symmetric (symmetric) bending (breathing) modes. Only transient perturbations with timescales (tau_{P}) comparable to the vertical oscillation period (tau_z sim 1/Omega_z) trigger z-v_z phase-spirals. Each (n,l,m) mode of the response to impulsive (tau_{P}<tau=1/(nOmega_z+lOmega_r+mOmega_phi)) perturbations is power law (sim tau_{P}/tau) suppressed, but that to adiabatic (tau_{P}>tau) perturbations is exponentially weak (sim left[-left(tau_{mathrm{P}/tauright)^alpharight]}) except resonant (tauto infty) modes. Slower (tau_{P}>tau_z) perturbations, e.g., distant encounters with satellite galaxies, induce stronger bending modes. If the Gaia phase-spiral was triggered by a satellite, Sagittarius is the leading contender as it dominates the Solar neighborhood response of the Milky Way disk to satellite encounters. However, survival against collisional damping necessitates that the impact occurred within sim 0.6-0.7 Gyr ago. We discuss how the detailed galactic potential dictates the phase-spiral shape: phase mixing occurs slower and phase-spirals are less wound in the outer disk and in presence of an ambient halo.

Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic method used to round numbers to floating-point and fixed-point representations. In length n summation, the worst-case error of SR grows as n with high probability, unlike for standard modes, like round-to-nearest (RN), which grows as n. For this reason, the former is increasingly employed in large-scale, low-precision computations as an RN alternative. Additionally, SR alleviates stagnation, whereby relatively small summands are completely rounded off and do not contribute to the sum. We provide an update to [Croci et al., Roy. Soc. Open Sci. 9.3 (2022), pp. 1-25], a survey which discusses the development and use of SR between 1949 and 2022, citing over 100 references. Since then, there has been a surge of new research, and this update covers almost four years of further progress in applying, analysing, and implementing SR. Our main focus is limited-precision stochastic rounding, a new variant that fixes the precision of the random numbers used. We provide insights into industrial and numerical analysis activities surrounding SR, highlighting the next possible steps in making this rounding mode more widely available in hardware.

Using observations from GMRT and FAST, we conducted multi-wavelength studies on PSR J1948+3540 and analyzed its intensity modulation characteristics in detail. We found that the intensity modulation of this pulsar exhibits broad low-frequency modulation features. The modulation frequency/period is time-dependent, but the dominant modulation component varies with the observing frequency. Specifically, at low frequencies, the modulation is dominated by the first half of the middle component, while at high frequencies, it is dominated by the second half of the middle component. Spectral analysis revealed that the intensities of the leading and trailing components vary with the observing frequency, but the middle component does not change significantly. Besides, the polarization analyses reveal that the peak of the radiation intensity is located in the latter half of the middle component, whereas the linear polarization is dominant in the former half. However, due to the low degree of linear polarization, the change of the dominant modulation component with the observed frequency is not caused by the variation in linear polarization. The phenomenon of the dominant modulation component varying with observing frequency has not been reported before and remains difficult to understand within the current theoretical framework.

Late payments and limited working capital propagate liquidity stress across supply chains, especially among small and medium sized enterprises. This paper develops a path enabled clearing framework for invoice backed trade networks and evaluates Byppay, a local compensation procedure based on repeated three party reductions. Unlike cycle restricted netting, which can clear only obligations embedded in directed cycles, Byppay can also reduce obligations along open chains while preserving node net positions on a combined post settlement state composed of the residual invoice graph and a generated settlement instruction layer. The paper contributes by formalizing this framework for invoice networks, defining a comparable post settlement metric system, specifying deterministic benchmark procedures, and assessing them on the same real invoice graphs. The empirical analysis uses the 2021 IMI invoice corpus of 133,191 invoices totaling EUR 19.67 billion. On the annual aggregate, the cycle restricted Netting benchmark achieves EUR 4.13 billion of debt relief, or 20.99%, whereas Byppay achieves EUR 10.60 billion, or 53.87%. In the metric system adopted here, gross obligation reduction and liquidity relief are both measured on post settlement payable mass and are therefore identical for both procedures. The results show that path enabled local compensation reaches a substantially larger reduction fixed point than a cycle restricted benchmark on the same invoice graphs, while also supporting a deployable execution logic compatible with selective disclosure and distributed coordination.